My Thoughts on “Operation Epic Fury” as of March 26, 2026
I have been relatively quiet about Operation Epic Fury. I am genuinely ambivalent whether to support it. Benjamin Franklin had a method for working through indecision:
To get over this, my Way is, to divide half a Sheet of Paper by a Line into two Columns, writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con.1
Reasons to Support
- Iran is a long-term nuclear threat — and nuclear capability is a one-way door. If Iran crosses the threshold and fields a functional nuclear weapon, that fact cannot be undone. It permanently alters the regional and global balance of power. Acting before that door closes is reasonable.
- Freedom for the Iranian people is a legitimate goal. America has long committed itself to the spread of democracy and individual liberty. When an opportunity to help a people achieve self-governance arises, there is a reasonable case that we should take it.
- Iran is a proxy for Russia and China. Degrading Iranian military capacity sends a message to both powers that the United States will not yield over smaller states — Ukraine being an example. That signaling has real strategic value.
Reasons to Oppose
- The risk of an open-ended commitment is serious. Two scenarios concern me. First, a protracted multi-year conflict would exhaust American will and degrade our readiness to confront China — the more consequential long-term rival. Second, the financial and material cost of a failed or stalemated war directly competes with urgent domestic priorities: the national debt, immigration, and the economic disruption that AI is already creating.
- America is not the world’s policeman. We do not have the resources, the political will, or the moral obligation to resolve every regional conflict on the planet. We need to be selective about where we spend our resources.
- The Iranian people may not be ready for democracy — and we shouldn’t assume otherwise. American culture is steeped in individualism and a tradition of taking up arms for self-determination. We cannot project that onto a society organized around a different set of values. Regime change does not guarantee democratic self-rule.
- The economic shocks could be severe. Any large-scale military action in the region will disrupt global oil supply. The fight over the Strait of Hormuz is a warning signal. In the short term, we can absorb the hit. In the long term, the effects on energy markets, inflation, and global growth are uncertain.
- There is no clear imminent threat. I have yet to see a credible explanation of an Iranian imminent threat. If the threat is real but not yet immediate, that gives us time to build international consensus, strengthen our military capabilities in the Middle East, and pursue alternatives to conflict.
Conclusion
I remain undecided on Operation Epic Fury. The arguments on both sides are legitimate.
For now, I am willing to give President Trump the benefit of the doubt. But that is conditional. He must either win this war quickly — however he chooses to define victory — or make a clear case to the American people for why a longer commitment is necessary.
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Franklin, Benjamin. Letter to Joseph Priestley, September 19, 1772. https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Franklin/01-19-02-0200. I recommend reading the whole letter. It is high-yield. ↩︎
